US Election News-2008
July 10, 2008 – 7:37 amThe United States presidential election of 2008, scheduled to be held on November 4, 2008, will be the 56th consecutive
quadrennial election for president and vice president of the United States. This presidential election schedule coincides
with the 2008 Senate elections, House of Representatives elections, and gubernatorial elections, as well as many state and
local elections.
Under Article Two of the United States Constitution, as amended by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution,
an Electoral College will elect the president. These electors are appointed by mechanisms chosen by each state’s legislature
(prevailingly, by popular vote of the voters of each state). The individual who receives a majority of votes for president —
270 votes are needed for a majority — will be the president-elect of the United States; and the individual who receives a
majority of electoral votes for vice president will be the vice president-elect of the United States. If no presidential
candidate receives a majority in the Electoral College, then the president-elect will be selected by a vote of the House of
Representatives, with each state receiving a single vote. If no vice presidential candidate receives a majority, then the
vice president-elect will be selected by a vote of the Senate. Although rare, these latter scenarios have occurred twice in
America’s history, in 1825 and 1837.
As in the 2004 presidential election, the allocation of electoral votes to each state will be partially based on the 2000
Census. The president-elect and vice president-elect are scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2009.
2008 presidential election characteristics
First election without incumbents in the primaries since 1928
When a United States President leaves office, his vice president is usually considered a leading candidate and likely nominee
to succeed him. In 2001, Vice President Dick Cheney announced that he would never run for president, a statement he
reiterated in 2004. While appearing on Fox News Sunday, Cheney stated: “I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to
say… If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve.”[1] The 2008 election therefore marks the first time since
the 1928 election in which there is neither an incumbent president nor an incumbent vice president running for their party’s
nomination in the presidential election.[2] The 1952 election was the last time neither the incumbent president nor incumbent
vice president ran in the general election, after President Harry S. Truman bowed out following his loss in the New Hampshire
primary and Vice President Alben Barkley then sought but failed to win the Democratic nomination.[3] (Truman’s name was on
the New Hampshire primary ballot but he did not campaign. He lost to Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver and formally withdrew
his name from consideration.) Also, Cheney’s decision marks the first time since 1928 that neither an incumbent president nor
vice president has even sought his party’s nomination.
In the three most recent presidential administrations featuring an outgoing two-term president — those of Eisenhower, Reagan,
and Clinton — the incumbent vice president has immediately thereafter run for president. (Richard Nixon lost the 1960
election, George H. W. Bush won the 1988 election, and Al Gore lost the 2000 election.)[4][5]
In the 1968 election, Lyndon B. Johnson initially decided to seek re-election. He entered the New Hampshire primary and won.
However, he had a national poll conducted, which yielded results not in his favor. In a nationally televised speech, Johnson
announced to the public that he would not seek re-election. Incumbent Vice President Hubert Humphrey ran instead and was the
eventual Democratic Party nominee.
During this period, several former vice presidents have sought the office of president as non-incumbents. Henry A. Wallace
was the Progressive Party nominee in 1948. Nixon was elected in 1968. Walter Mondale received his party’s nomination in 1984.
Dan Quayle was unsuccessful in bids for nomination in 1996 and 2000.[5]
The long campaign
The 2008 nomination campaign can be divided into four phases: the pre-primary campaign, January, Super Tuesday, and the
Spring.
The pre-primary campaign
“Front runner” status is dependent on the news agency reporting, but by October 2007, the consensus listed about six
candidates as leading the pack. For example, CNN listed Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Rudolph Giuliani, Fred Thompson,
Barack Obama, and Mitt Romney as the front runners. The Washington Post listed Clinton, Edwards and Obama as the Democratic
frontrunners, “leading in polls and fundraising and well ahead of the other major candidates”.[6] MSNBC’s Chuck Todd
christened Giuliani and John McCain the Republican front runners after the second Republican presidential debate.[7]
Three candidates, Clinton, Obama, and Romney, raised over $20 million in the first three months of 2007, and three others,
Edwards, Giuliani, and McCain, raised over $12 million, the next closest candidate was Bill Richardson, who raised over $6
million.[8] In the third quarter of 2007, the top four GOP fund raisers were Romney, Giuliani, Thompson, and Paul.[9] Paul
set the GOP record for the largest online single day fund raising on November 5, 2007.[10][11] Hillary Clinton set the
Democratic record for largest single day fund raising on June 30, 2007.
The primaries
Main articles: Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008 and Republican Party (United States)
presidential primaries, 2008
Delegates to national party conventions are selected through direct primary elections, state caucuses, and state conventions.
The process continues through June, but in previous cycles, the Democratic and Republican candidates were effectively chosen
by the March primaries. This is due to winning candidates collecting a majority of committed delegates to win their party’s
nomination. Most third parties select delegates to their national conventions through state conventions.
Both parties have adopted rules to prevent early primaries and have acted to strip some or all delegates from states that
have disobeyed. Several, most notably Florida and Michigan, did so, setting up possible credentials fights at the conventions
late in the summer.
January
Around the first of the year, the longstanding consensus that the so-called “chattering classes” had agreed to began to fall
apart. Support for Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama began rising in the polls, passing longtime front runners Romney and
Clinton for first place in Iowa, and suddenly John McCain displaced Rudy Guiliani and Romney as the front-runner in New
Hampshire. When Iowa held its caucuses at last, the two upstart campaigns were triumphant.
While Huckabee had little money and was hoping for a third place finish, Obama was suddenly the new front runner in New
Hampshire and the Clinton Campaign was for all appearances experiencing a meltdown. In one of those moments which seem
trivial at the time but are in retrospect vastly important, Mrs. Clinton shed tears in a public interview broadcast live on
TV.[13] By the end of the day, Hillary won the primary by a couple of points and embarrassing the pollsters, who had her as
much as twelve points behind on the day of the primary itself. What was more remarkable was the victory of John McCain, who
had been written off by the pundits and was in single digits less than a month before.
With the Republicans stripping Michigan and Florida of half their delegates, the Republican race was based there, while the
Democrats focused on Nevada and South Carolina, which were given special permission to have early contests. In South Carolina
Obama got 55% of the vote. Meanwhile, McCain managed a small victory in South Carolina, setting him up for a larger and more
important victory in Florida soon after.
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